"In this universe effect follows cause. I've complained about it, but. . ." -- House (Laurie), pre-sponding to D. Bem "The more extraordinary the event, the greater the need for it to be supported by ...

Bayesian statistics represents a powerful framework for data analysis that centres on Bayes’ theorem, enabling researchers to update existing beliefs with incoming evidence. By combining prior ...

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...

Regular Bayesian and frequentist approximations in statistics are studied within a unified framework. In particular it is shown how some higher-order likelihood-based approximations arise from their ...

Everyone who spends time with children knows how incredibly much they learn. But how can babies and young children possibly learn so much so quickly? In a recent article in Science, I describe a ...

This article was published in Scientific American’s former blog network and reflects the views of the author, not necessarily those of Scientific American I’m not sure when I first heard of Bayes’ ...

Despite knowing when life first appeared on Earth, scientists still do not understand how life occurred, which has important implications for the likelihood of finding life elsewhere in the universe.

The parametric bootstrap can be used for the efficient computation of Bayes posterior distributions. Importance sampling formulas take on an easy form relating to the deviance in exponential families ...

The stock market is an ever-changing place. In fact, it’s changing every second of every day as prices go up and down, and new factors impact the trajectory of the market. It’s important for investors ...